few days ago a Twitter follower I asked my opinion on the economic development of the restaurant industry in Spain for 2016. I replied saying I hope it the year of the definitive recovery of the sector, although the limitations of characters that we all know in this social network, I could not dwell on my argument.
So I take this opportunity to share this article in the newspaper and explain to all my readers and followers Why I am confident that 2016 it can be a positive year for the sector and once and for all finalize the long and terrible period that has led this crisis.
To support my argument I will make a graphical analysis of the key indicators of the industry in Spain, studying the trends that have occurred so far to forecast future movements in the sector, It is what is known as technical analysis or chartist.
Evolution of indicators in the hospitality sector in Spain
1.- Confidence index of Spanish hospitality
In Spain there are two institutions that regularly publish a sector confidence index based on surveys conducted at the different actors involved in the industry. On the one hand we have the confidence index Statistics National Institute and on the other the confidence indicator published jointly Nebrija University and the Spanish Federation of Hotels.
The following graphs you can see the progress of both in a period of over five years. In both cases, although the concrete evolution of the curve has not been exactly the same, The conclusion I draw is that until the first quarter of the year 2013 We were in a negative trend with a major loss of confidence by the hotelier, and it is from that point where we begin a climb which it has led us to end this year with a positive trend growing.
But what really means? The message is clear, from the year 2013 the hotelier again trust the future of your business, It has a positive expectation on its growth and will reflect in these surveys, just the opposite happened since 2008 until the 2013.
I honestly think, anyone who is daily measuring the heartbeat of the sector in Spain can deny that during the year 2015, it has been a tough year, we had a real more positive perception in our restaurants, mainly driven by an increase in the number of customers and / or billing. It is also true that the fear that has invaded us these years crisis It makes us quite incredulous about improving the situation.
2.- Occupancy rate in the hotel
Based on data published by the National Institute of Statistics and analyzing developments since 2005, I can see how this is divided into three stages. A first generation with a high and steady employment lasted until about mid-year 2008, where there was a stunning setback in the sector with a massive loss of employment that lasted until early 2013, coinciding with the improved confidence. Later It starts employment growth that lasts until today, with some very marked acceleration processes.
This recent positive trend has not allowed us to recover all the jobs that was lost in the crisis, but it is true that we are recovering levels 2008.
For him 2016 we must consolidate this data and start looking levels that lead to a similar situation a year 2005 O 2006, although it is necessary that a very favorable economic situation is given for rates job growth important.
3.- Index of turnover in hotels
The chart collects data every month since 2005, a sample large enough to see the development of turnover levels in the restaurant industry in Spain.
Since 2007 until the year 2014, we are in a bear channel that month would confirm with new lows generating a steady decline in the turnover of restaurants. It is from the beginning of the year 2014 where this channel breaks its maximum and begins to create an opposing figure emerging a bullish channel where ever these maximums exceed previous, which it is the point where we are right now.
For him 2016 I foresee a slight increase in some months in turnover with the aim of maximum occurring are greater than the previous and minimum are always well above its predecessors, generating a continuity in the bullish channel that allows us to recover in three or four years turnover levels precrisis.
Risks to the hospitality sector in Spain
I would not finish my argument without taking into account some of the main factors that could influence positively or negatively on my theories about the evolution of the industry in Spain for restaurants 2016.
1.- international economic situation
Although Spain is growing above the eurozone, it is clear that an economic upturn in GDP of our neighboring countries or the international environment would have a positive influence on the inertia of our growth and therefore in the sector.
2.- Oil prices
The current oil price scenarios allow reduction in the price of fuel and energy costs, one of the main destinations for these consumers make economic surplus is leisure and among them undoubtedly increased consumption by customers in restaurants.
3.- terrorist actions
Always under the personal misfortune and the drama of an action of this type, we can not deny the negative impact they would have on the sector, where fear makes the need for leisure pass to a second level and unfortunately such an obvious way we are seeing in Paris, one of the cities with more restaurants and tourist world.
4.- Evolution of the Spanish economy
It is undoubtedly the greatest impact element in the restaurant industry nationwide, As commented in the article I published a few days ago “10 Key in the restaurant industry for 2016”, the industry needs positive economic growth rates above 2,5% GDP for more dynamic and grow in a sustainable way, as this allows create jobs and have money to spend on leisure.
5.- tax risk
A possible rise in the Value Added Tax in the hospitality sector would have a very negative impact on the current margins, already tight, generating a very complicated situation for the sustainability of many restaurants would have to close with the consequent negative impact on the sector.
I trust that this analysis has been satisfied my Twitter follower on my forecast of the economic situation in the restaurant industry for the year 2016, but I do not want to end without reminding the famous phrase of Benjamin Franklin… “In this world, nothing is certain except death and taxes”