In recent months I have received countless messages and questions from my readers and followers on the current situation of the industry restaurants in Spain.
It is undeniable that something is happened in the sector and for the first time in a while we started to notice the first signs of a possible recovery.
To answer this question, beyond my personal opinion, I have done an analysis of three relevant indicators, with the aim of providing us the necessary keys to understanding the current situation.
1.- Change in the tone of the news
If we go back to the years 2011, 2012 and part of 2013 and we review the news industry were published in various media offline and online, we realize that were dramatic, with an absolutely negative and discouraging tone.
In recent months, almost since the beginning of this year, general tone has changed dramatically publications, helped by some positive data, finding more hopeful messages for restaurants.
These headlines serve as an example where you can see the contrast in tones of messages in recent years.[meta suffering id = 8637]
2.- Hotelier confidence
If we analyze carefully the last curve 7 years of business confidence indicator published quarterly by the INE, and in particular the data referred to hospitality, we can get information about the current and future vision of the owners of restaurants.
Since 2008 to half the 2011 He has been following a channel (red parallel lines) that has led to maximum levels, next to 135 points.
From here there was a very rapid decline of the indicator (orange arrow), passing in two quarters from maximum to minimum registered this indicator, with an acceleration in the loss of confidence unprecedented.
Then we enter a floor (yellow line), which lasted 6 lengthy quarters, where the sector was not real elements to have a positive vision of the future of their companies.
It is from the middle of 2013 when the curve changes direction and begins an uptrend (green Arrow), in which we are immersed at this time, Which leads me to conclude with a major change, in recent months, in the perception of hospitality on the future of your business.
further, this figure as contrasted with other industry confidence indicator, which publish the FEHR and the University of Nebrija, confirming the change in trend of the moment (green Line).
3.- Word searches “restaurant” a Google
If we analyze Google searches on the term “restaurant” in Spain in recent 10 years, We obtain valuable information on developments in the interest of internet users have on restaurants, relevant data for the study of demand.
Since 2005 until the 2009 It occurred a channel (orange lines) with a linear trend, sawtooth important thanks to increased searches caused mainly by company events and increased consumption in the Christmas season.
It is from 2009 when it begins to decrease interest from users searching for the word “restaurant” which leads to a downtrend (Red Arrow) which lasts until mid-year 2011
In 2012 normalcy returns searches, retaking the channel (orange lines) where he had been since 2005 al 2009.
But it is from mid-year 2013 and mainly 2014 when this curve gets traced the channel and become the growing trend (green Arrow) It imposed today.
With what I can also conclude that confirms, by customers, a change in the trend of interest in restaurants and an improvement in the situation compared to previous years.
In addition it gives a very curious element and shows the great psychological influence of this crisis, and that there is a negative correlation increases in searches of words “crisis” Y “restaurant”, that is to say, that as one increases the other decreases and vice versa.
Undoubtedly, all the analyzed data clearly indicate a change in trend, having a very negative situation for the sector at the beginning of a positive change in the coming months should be evidenced and confirmed.
Google Trend predictions for the remainder of this year and for the 2015 They are good, since the growing trend continues in the search for the word “restaurant” in Spain as you can see in the chart below:
But right now I would be cautious, In my opinion, definitive trend change would occur with two essential data, on the one hand with a steady increase in job creation and the other with a substantial increase in turnover in both cases to break the negative trend that has been dragging over 5 years.
If you look at the charts below, we are in the two cases in a downtrend, I hope good data-driven trust and interest from customers can definitely change the direction of the trend, which would start a new positive cycle for the restaurant industry in Spain.
I'd love to hear your thoughts, Do you think has changed the trend in Spanish restaurants? What is your prediction about the future of the industry?. You can leave me your thoughts in the comments.