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The restaurant curve

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Today the world lives pending of some graphic representations that allow us to visually see the meaning, the evolution and trend of a number series.

All the countries, or at least those who have data, they have made public the evolution of their figures of infected, recovered, and deceased, caused by this terrible pandemic of coronavirus.

At this time they have become common graphic terms such as "Flatten the curve", what in essence it supposes to initiate a bearish tendency that diminishes the negative data that this virus is leaving us.

Those of us who study economics, regardless of the sector or industry in which we focus our interest, we always go to the visual analysis of the data to find answers or confirmations, since it allows us in a simple way to know their past evolution, even foresee possible future trends, is what we usually call technical or chart analysis.

Of course, the restaurant industry or the hospitality sector, has its graphics, like the rest of economic niches, although it must also be said that except in the United States that there are official data listed on the New York Stock Exchange, in the rest of the countries it is complex to find specific indicators of the sector that have a guarantee or reference from the financial market itself.

One of these graphics that visually shows us the pulse of the sector at the international level, or at least in the United States, is the Dow Jones Restaurant & Bar Index, and that as you can see in the image below shows the cataclysm that the impact of COVID-19 has had on the industry of American restaurants in the industry, what has forced many restaurants to close their doors and remove the income from your income statement.

One of its graphs that visually shows us the pulse of the sector at the international level

Although there was a free fall in the first days of March, practically until the middle of the month, we see how later part of this fall has been recovered, even something more than 1/3 Of the same. The future, will depend on the exclusive and proportional measures to the debacle, that the American government is already taking for the restaurant sector and soon or not, opening of the hotel business.

In Spain, and in almost no other country in the world, such a specific index of the sector is available, thus we must look for other indicators that give us a reflection of the timing of the sector or at least some relevant elements that are part of the industry.

In them we try to find information and answers to some of the questions that we will have to answer in the coming weeks or months..

It is always interesting to go to Google to see what the interest of the different agents involved in the restaurant industry is, about those words or topics that may be relevant.

This is the case of the following geolocated graphics in Spain, that give us obvious clues as to where the trend is going.

The interest reflected in the following graph by restaurants, has fallen to all-time lows with an estimated debacle of 90%, logical question before the massive closure of restaurants in Spain.

But the question I ask myself at this point, is that other sectors or niches adjacent to the hospitality industry show a contrary tendency, that is to say bullish, that allows us to think that within this global chaos opportunities may arise that in the face of a scenario of normality may come to be maintained or consolidated.

The following chart, I show one of them, which maintains a position absolutely contrary to the fall in the interest of restaurants, How is it Food Delivery, which has grown by the different agents, mainly customers, in almost a 50% of what was his usual pre-covid interest19.

But even, we can find more concrete products that do not stop growing in the Spanish delivery market, as in the case of”came home” it was a word that had been asleep for practically its entire history, and that it has had spectacular growth since almost the beginning of this crisis.

As well, the “meat delivery” is behaving very similar to what we saw in the previous study:

All these trend changes, allow me Obtain obvious clues as to where the hospitality market is turning in these times of major limitations, This does not mean that they will be movements that persist with this rotundity once conditions can begin to normalize.. Although in my opinion, this accelerated course in digitization that humanity is doing, and that this virus has forced us, it will undoubtedly bring many changes in the ways of consuming and in the habits of customers.

Restaurants should start to think that in the “new normal”, how the Post-Covid19 stage is rated, customers will have a high degree of digitization that will allow them to choose the place where they want to enjoy their gastronomic experience. It seems clear, that customers will go to restaurants, but that maybe more than ever, restaurants will go to customers.

Today, every day, millions of people discover that the digital barrier no longer exists, and also has become your best ally, allowing you to stay in touch with your friends, with their relatives, laugh and cry behind a phone, attend a training course, and as we saw in the previous charts, order food at home, even enjoy a good wine in this dramatic moment, that if, at home.

As I said many years ago, the door of the restaurants is no longer wooden or glass, It is digital, and the curve of the restaurants, as if it were an orchestra that plays in perfect harmony, is drawing these words.

About the Author

CEO of DiegoCoquillat.com and director of the EscuelaDiegoCoquillat.com, teacher, consultant, lecturer and entrepreneur incorrigible. If you can not find it here, search near the sea. Passion for new technologies and restaurants ... passion for life.

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